Research Proposal

Abstract

It is consistently found that women outlive men; so much so that it is generally considered to be a human universal (Austad 2006). However, the majority of this evidence is derived from modern Westernized societies who have undergone industrial revolutions (Austad 2006). As a result, there is little research showing how this mortality phenomenon manifests in historical, pre-industrial societies with different sociocultural and ecological conditions. However, recent research on 19th century Baja California, Mexico, shows that there is actually an inversion of mortality rates by sex, whereby women in the age range of 15-30 are dying at a faster rate than men (Scacht et al. 2020). While the research shows this inversion, it is still unclear why it occurs. Other research has shown that the earlier women reproduce, the earlier they will experience mortality (Bolund et al. 2016). Pre-industrialized societies, such as 19th century Baja California, are often characterized by high rates of child marriage, and therefore early reproduction among women (Macfarlan et al. 2020, Martinez 1965). By this logic, I hypothesize that early reproduction among women is what causes this inversion of mortality rates by sex.  In order to test this hypothesis, I will be working alongside my colleague, Ema Valverde, and mentor, Shane Macfarlan, in examining and analyzing a historical dataset: the Guia Familiar de Baja California: 1700-1900. This particular dataset contains thousands of marriage, fertility, and death records that show the life-histories of those living in the Baja California peninsula during the 19th century (Martinez 1965). These records have already been transcribed into Excel through the work of Professor Macfarlan’s previous research team. Now, Ema and I will link these respective records into one comprehensive dataset, whereby we can analyze the data and make assumptions about whether or not men outlived women during the pre-industrial period of Baja California. This research can be used to provide genealogical information to Baja California residents, offer insight on the implications and consequences of early reproduction, and potentially influence public policy regarding child marriage and its risks to women’s health.

Relevant Background/Literature Review

In modern, westernized societies, research shows that women regularly outlive men (Thornton 2019). It is probable that the reason for this is due to certain sociocultural and biological factors. For example, previous research has suggested that men are riskier in behavior (Wingard 1984), as well as more susceptible to ailments such as diabetes and cardiovascular disease, which therefore contributes to their higher mortality rates relative to women (Case, Paxson 2005). However, all of this data has been collected from industrialized nations in recent decades. Within these research articles, their datasets were collected either from recent national surveys in the US (Wingard 1984, Case, Paxson 2005), or data collected from western, technologically advanced countries (Austad 2006). Therefore, it is unreasonable to assume that this mortality phenomenon was or is still present in pre-industrialized societies, where cultural norms and/or socio ecological conditions are different. In fact, previous research has shown that in these pre-modern societies, the effect of women outliving men does not apply. For men, their increased longevity may be due to a more active lifestyle during this timeframe, in which heart disease is less of a risk (Kaplan et al. 2017). For women, their decreased longevity may be due to factors of early reproduction and high obstetric risk, which is characterized by high fertility and/or inaccessibility to healthcare (Schact et al. 2020). 

Further, it is shown that men in these pre-industrial societies typically favor younger women as spouses because of their high reproductive potential (Macfarlan et al. 2020). This also ties into female mortality rates because the prevalence of child marriage and early pregnancy is considered to be a contributing factor to premature death among these women (Thornton 2019).

Particularly in 19th century Baja California, historical records show high rates of child marriage and early reproduction (Macfarlan et al. 2020; Martinez 1965). In addition, further research has shown that women in these communities are highly susceptible to mortality at the ages of 15-30, so much so that they are dying at a faster rate than men (Schact et al. 2020). We speculate that the presence of early marriage, and therefore early reproduction, is correlated to earlier mortality events among women in this timeframe. In order to test this hypothesis, Ema and I will be using the Guia Familiar de Baja California, a historical dataset that consists of marriage, birth, and death records of the 19th century Baja California population. 

The Guia Familiar de Baja California is the largest collection of demographic data of the Baja California peninsula spanning the 18th and 19th century. These records were obtained by Pablo Martinez, who travelled across the peninsula in order to extract vital records from historical mission sites which were deteriorating from natural causes. Due to his efforts, we now have historical demographic information of those residing within the peninsula in the 18th and 19th centuries before Baja California started conducting an official census in 1895 (Martinez 1965). Given this, these demographic data are the only source of information that we have in order to understand the life-histories of those living in the peninsula during this time frame. Overall, there are about 15,000 records total, consisting of roughly 12,000 birth and baptismal records, 1,600 marriage records, and 1,200 death records (Martinez 1965). In previous research, these records have been used to find mortality dynamics in the past (Schact et al. 2020), as well as how socio ecological conditions shape marriage formation (Macfarlan et al 2020). Now, Ema and I will use this dataset in order to link mortality events to events of marriage and fertility. By doing so, we will be able to see if age of first reproduction among women truly does lead to an inversion of mortality rates by sex.

This kind of research has a number of applications in the real world. On one hand, it can provide more knowledge about the history of 19th century Baja California, a time period in which little information is known. Further, it can benefit the current population of Baja California by supplying genealogical data to the community that can be used to track ancestral ties. On the other hand, this research can extend beyond the reaches of Baja California and potentially be used as a resource to educate people on the repercussions and dangers of child marriage. Currently, one of the global Sustainable Development Goals is to eradicate child marriage by 2030 (Girls not Brides 2020). Our research can provide further information to support this movement, and potentially implement public policy that protects women and their reproductive health. 

Timeframe

From the 15,000 collective records in the Guia Familiar de Baja California, there are about 12,000 birth and baptismal records, 1,600 marriage records, and 1,200 death records. Primarily, Ema and I will be focusing on linking the death records to the rest of the data set. In order to split the data as evenly as possible, Ema will be working on a total of 640 records spanning the communities of Ensenada, Todos Santos, Santa Rosalía and San José Del Cabo, while I’ll be linking 631 records from the communities of Mulege, La Paz, and Comundo. We believe the most efficient way to organize the data is through creating a new Excel spreadsheet that provides specific columns for the individuals we find across multiple records. By creating this spreadsheet, we will be able to track when individuals were married (and to whom), when they gave birth (as well as who their children are), and when they died. Through this comprehensive dataset, we should be able to clearly track the trajectory of a person’s lifetime. While looking at the life-histories of several individuals, we can speculate whether or not the age at marriage and first reproduction affects the age of death. 

Here is an example of how the data can linked:

Ma. Ursula Orozco, de 18 años, c. con Ramón Romero, f. el 25 de Sept. de 1862. – P. Gabriel González.

Sta. Ma. Ursula Romero, reg. el 12 de Oct. de 1861, n. el 25 de Sept. ppdo., h.l. de Ramón Romero y Ursula Orozco. Abs. Pats. Francisco Romero y Cándida Amador; Abs. Mats. Luis Orozco y Jesús Martínez (RC).

The first figure is an example of a death record within the Guia Familiar de Baja California. It translates to show that María Ursula Orozco died at 18 years old. She was married to Ramón Romero, and died on the 25th of September in the year 1862. The second figure is an example of a birth record within this dataset. It reads that Santa María Ursula Romero was registered on October 12, 1861, and was born the previous month, on September 25, 1861. She is the legitimate child of Ramón Romero and Ursula Orozco. Looking at these records side by side, we can see that María Ursula Orozco gave birth to her child, Santa María Ursula Romero, in 1861 when she was just 17 years old. Given the fact that she died the following year, we can make assumptions about how her early reproduction may be linked to her premature death. This is just one example of how the data can be linked in order to test hypotheses about the effects of reproductive age on mortality, and we hope to find more overlapping data in order to further test such hypotheses. 

Data input and linkage is projected to take 70 hours, as sifting through thousands of records in order to find overlapping information is time consuming. Every week, Ema, Shane, and I will meet on Zoom in order to discuss any questions regarding data linkage, database management, and interpretations of the data. This is projected to take about 10 hours spanning the entirety of the semester. Once all of the records are inputted and linked, we can begin data analysis whereby we can investigate how early reproduction affects the mortality rate by sex. We will do this by using the statistical software program, STATA, in order to create tables, figures, and regression analyses to determine whether or not our results support our hypothesis (StataCorp 2019). Creating these mediums through STATA is expected to take about 10 hours, along with another 10 hours dedicated to the construction of our final UROP poster/presentation. Overall, this research project should fit within the allotted time frame of 120 hours throughout the course of the semester.

Data Coding: 70 hours

Data Analysis: 20 hours

Mentorship meetings: 10 hours

Creating tables/figures: 10 hours

Final poster production: 10 hours

Total Hours Acquired: 120 hours

Covid 19

Fortunately, all aspects of this research can be conducted remotely. Ema and I have online access to Guia de Familiar de Baja California and can input various records into Excel and STATA from our respective computers. Ema and I have several ways to contact each other, and we communicate frequently about any questions or concerns we may have. Further, mentorship meetings with Professor Macfarlan are conducted once a week through Zoom, and more pressing matters can be communicated at any time through email. Overall, none of this research requires us to be in person, which is particularly beneficial given the circumstances. 

Personal Experience

Shane Macfarlan is an assistant professor of anthropology, as well as a faculty affiliate of the Center for Latin American Studies at the University of Utah. He has a history of mentoring undergraduates through the UROP program, and has overseen several research projects throughout his time at the University of Utah. Dr. Macfarlan has expertise on the cultural anthropology and evolutionary demography of Latin America and the Caribbean, with a focus on the Baja California peninsula. Since beginning his research in Baja in 2008, Professor Macfarlan has gone on to collaborate with the Instituto Nacional de Antropologia e Historia as well as the Universidad Autónoma de Baja California. Additionally, he has published several academic papers regarding the cultural history (Macfarlan and Henrickson 2010), ecology (Macfarlan et al. 2019), and demography of Baja California (Koster et al. 2019; Macfarlan et al. 2020), making him a trusted authority of knowledge on the area. Professor Macfarlan also has a history of expertise in statistical analysis, particularly in the program STATA, which will be necessary to our research analysis and presentation. While teaching coursework in Latin America and the Caribbean, Dr. Macfarlan also conducts an international field school every other year within Baja California Sur, Mexico. In fact, I was fortunate enough to participate in this research opportunity back in 2019.

During this field school, I worked closely with Dr. Macfarlan and a group of other students in order to examine various aspects of culture, ecology, and sustainability within the Baja California peninsula. Throughout the field school, I gained a deeper understanding of Baja California’s rich cultural history, geographical diversity, and even the personal stories of those residing within this peninsula. Additionally, my team and I used the historical records from the Guia Familiar de Baja California in order to test questions about how climatic conditions affected birth seasonality in the past. Similar to now, we inputted these records into an Excel sheet, from which we were able to construct statistical analyses and make assumptions about the implications of the data. Since I have previous experience with not only the Baja community but also the Guia Familiar, I felt called to this particular project because I know how to work with the dataset and am interested in learning more about the history of the peninsula. 

Further, having an opportunity to work so closely and extensively with Professor Macfarlan throughout the field school allowed me to gain insight into his mentorship abilities. He is incredibly attentive to the questions and concerns of his students, and it is clear that he wants all of his apprentices to succeed. He made it a point to offer help in any way he could, even outside of the field school. Because of this, I felt comfortable reaching out to Professor Macfarlan in looking for a research opportunity. Currently, I am involved in his research lab as a volunteer for the remainder of this semester, where I am working on additional aspects of this historical demographic data. Based on my experiences so far, I can confidently state that Dr. Macfarlan has been professional and accommodating, particularly in answering any and all questions that Ema and I might have about the research at hand. I am looking forward to continuing this research next semester with Shane’s guidance and expertise on the matter. 

Future Work Goals

I am a 4th year undergraduate double-majoring in Anthropology and International Studies, while also obtaining a minor in Writing and Rhetoric Studies. Participating in this research project will not only allow me to finish my degree, but will also give me the skills necessary to land a career within anthropology after I graduate. For the future, my career goals consist of doing international research while simultaneously writing about my experiences, either through academic papers or more personal rhetoric. Clearly, doing data collection and analysis will give me hands-on experience to further understand the concepts I have been learning in my anthropology courses over the years. Further, this research will allow me to develop so-called “hard skills” and show future employers that I am capable of recognizing, extracting, and analyzing data sources. Accompanying this, I will develop “soft skills” by being able to work on projects individually, as well as with a team (Ema and Shane). Additionally, through my participation in this research project, Professor Macfarlan has promised to make me a co-author on any academic papers written as a result of the research I have contributed. Dr. Macfarlan has considerable experience publishing peer-reviewed, scientific research with his undergraduate students, especially those enrolled in the UROP program. By the end of our UROP research, we expect to submit an academic paper using this data to a scientific journal for publishing. It has been a life-long goal of mine to become a published author within academia, and being able to publish as an undergraduate will show future employers that I am capable of professional and scholarly writing within this field.

Resources

Austad, S.N., Why women live longer than men: sex differences in longevity. Gender medicine, 2006.

Bolund, E., et al., Reduced costs of reproduction in females mediate a shift from a male-biased to a female-biased lifespan in humans. Scientific Reports, 2016. 

Case, A. and C. Paxson, Sex differences in morbidity and mortality. Demography, 2005.

Kaplan, H., et al., Coronary atherosclerosis in indigenous South American Tsimane: a cross sectional cohort study. The Lancet, 2017. 

Koster J. et al., Kinship ties across the lifespan in human communities: Implications for reproductive conflict theory. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society. 2019.

Macfarlan S, et al., Emergent matriliny in a matrifocal, patrilineal population: A male coalitionary perspective. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B 374(1780). 2019.

Macfarlan S, et al., Inferring relationships between indigenous Baja California Sur and Seri/Comcáac populations through cultural traits. The Journal of California and Great Basin Anthropology 30(1): 51-68. 2010.

Macfarlan S, et al, Marriage dynamics in old Lower California: Ecological constraints and reproductive value in a peninsular frontier. Biodemography & Social Biology. 2020.

Martínez, P.L., Guía familiar de Baja California, 1700-1900. 1965: Editorial Baja California.  

Schacht R, Macfarlan SJ, Meek H, Cervantes PL., Male survival advantage on the Baja  California peninsula. Biology Letters. 2020.

StataCorp. 2019. Stata Statistical Software: Release 16. College Station, TX: StataCorp LLC.

The Idea Bureau. (2020). Girls Not Brides. https://www.girlsnotbrides.org/

Thornton J. WHO Report shows that women outlive men worldwide. British Medical Journal (Online), Vol. 356. 2019.

Wingard, D.L., The sex differential in morbidity, mortality, and lifestyle. Annual review of public 199 health, 1984.